« 5 Questions - Meet Bob Emiliani | Main | Back to Basics at Toyota »

24 February 2009

Comments

Interesting post, Kevin. I suspect the world is beginning to understand that this 'recession' is more of a permanent adjustment in the economy. For too many years credit has been ridiculously easy, houses, cars and everything else were sold on credit to way too many people who had no business buying such things. Now the house of cards has collapsed - and don't expect anyone to be in a big hurry to underwrite those high risk loans very soon.

Not only have the "C" and "D" lenders for cars and houses gone, even the predators pushing VISA cards on unemployed kids have disappeared from the college campuses. They won't be back because outfits like Lehman Brothers won't be around to pool and sell those high risk loans.

The upshot is that unlike previous 'recessions' there will be no pent-up demand to burst out. This means a more or less permanent decrease in the size of markets. The 2 million or so new cars that sold every year to people who really could not afford them will not be coming back. The number of IPods sold to kids with credit cards they should never have been given will represent a somewhat permanent shrinking of the IPod market.

Nothing is absolute, of course. Maybe mommy and daddy will step in and buy the IPods, but it will be at the expense of something else - clothes, fast food, beer money, who knows?

The companies you wrote of are the ones that understand this and they see the need for a more substantial, permanent reduction in their fixed cost footprint. Those companies that are treating this as a short term blip that will soon right itself like all previous recessions either have a plan to be the winner when people are allocating more scarce dollars, or they are naively heading for an even bigger disaster than they are now facing.

All in all, it should be a very interesting next couple of years. My outlook is that as we enter into an extremely competitive era all of those companies that either paid lip service to creating superior value through lean or ignored lean all together and ran off to China are screwed.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Subscribe

Search the Blog

Superfactory

  • Resources for lean excellence
    - Articles | Books
    - Events | Glossary
    - Topic Resources | eNewsletter
    - PowerPoints | Videos
    - Virtual Tours | Lean History

    PowerPoint
    Presentations

    Lean Manufacturing
    Lean Overview - 3P - 5S - Jidoka - Kaizen - Value Streams - Visual Factory - Pull - JIT - Kanban - Quick Changeover - Cellular Manufacturing - Standard Work - Theory of Constraints - TPM - TWI

    Lean Enterprise
    Lean Manufacturing - Lean Office - Lean Accounting - Lean Design - Lean Project Management - Lean Sales & Marketing - Lean Supply Chains - Hoshin Planning

    Lean Leadership
    Leader Standard Work - Accountability - Gemba Walk - Lean Culture - Lean Organizations - Servant Leadership - Hoshin

    Lean Industries
    Lean Manufacturing - Lean Construction - Lean Education - Lean Government - Lean Healthcare - Lean Charities - Lean Logistics

    Business
    Balanced Scorecard - Design for Lean - Cost Accounting - Capital Budgeting - Competitive Intelligence - Knowledge Management - Job Design - Outsourcing Strategy - Supply Chain Strategy - Strategic Management - Project Management

    Quality
    SPC - Root Cause Analysis - Six Sigma - FMEA - ISO 9001 - Mistake Proofing

    Safety
    Accident Investigation - Biosafety - Chemical Spills - Hazard Communication - and 35 more

     


    Factory Toolbox


    Over 500 forms, procedure templates, and tools for download.

    Lean Toolkit - Procedures Toolkit - Quality Toolkit - Tools and Forms Toolkit - Engineering Toolkit - Materials Toolkit - Safety Toolkit - HR Toolkit - Six Sigma Toolkit - Finance Tookit

The Book

  • Evolving Excellence
    Thoughts on Lean Enterprise Leadership

    by Kevin Meyer and Bill Waddell

    A 458-page edited and categorized compilation of our favorite posts! All for only $29.95.

    More information

    All 1500+ pages of Evolving Excellence from January of 2005 through July of 2008, including comments and reference sources, is now available in a series of six e-books. Perfect reading for those long plane rides to visit your farflung factories...! The entire series for only $10, which helps cover our costs.

    Purchase and download now!

Sponsors

Other

  • Copyright © 2004 - 2008
    Factory Strategies Group LLC.
    All rights reserved.